Unherd zero covid6/11/2023 ![]() ![]() This was by far the most common ‘miss’ in the US policy community and since I was following voices in that community, I made it too. Now I want to thank past me for trying very hard to signal the wide range of uncertainty involved in outcomes in wars and that (as I say elsewhere in the post, “Moreover, war is not the realm of certainties, but, as Clausewitz says (drink!) subject to “the play of probabilities and chance”…No one knows what is going to happen, but we can venture some very general suggestions of the most likely course of events.” And in theory I did include the actual outcome in the range of possible outcomes, but I also expressly noted it was unlikely. This last possibility has been judged by the experts as being very unlikely, and I tend to agree. There is a range of possibilities within that statement, from a relatively quick victory with the Ukrainian Armed Forces simply collapsing, to a slogging campaign that morphs almost seamlessly into insurgency as it proceeds, to, of course, the small but non-zero chance that the balance of morale and ability surprises everyone and the Russian offensive fails. Second, the balance of equipment and numbers suggests that Russian forces are very likely to win in the field. So let’s start by looking at what I said back in last February, and let’s start what the most obvious miss: As is typical in war, a lot of people were wrong about a lot of things and I was certainly no exception. I want to start with some intellectual honesty: we ought to benchmark the predictions I made when the war began. Unfortunately this war probably isn’t going to be over any time soon. If you want to help, consider donating to Ukrainian aid organizations like Razom for Ukraine or to the Ukrainian Red Cross. And beyond all of this, the war has displaced very large numbers of Ukrainians as refugees, both within Ukraine and beyond its borders. Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have caused shortages within the country, while Russian attacks on civilian housing have caused substantial casualties, above and beyond the now well-documented Russian war crimes in occupied territories. I am on the side of the nascent democracy which was ruthlessly and lawlessly attacked without provocation by a larger and more powerful foreign power.”Īnd once again before we get started, a reminder that the conflict in Ukraine is causing very real suffering. And of course once again, I said right around this time last year, “I am not going to pretend to be neutral here. Then I want to take stock of where the conflict seems to be right now – keeping in mind that I am largely reliant here on the expertise of others and so am operating from my ‘professional thing explainer’ role, rather than as the expert. That out of the way, we’ll start with the self-assessment, looking back at some of the assumptions I had and the predictions I made to see where they went right and where they went wrong. Consequently, I’m going to distinguish between the War in the Donbas (2014-present) and the War in Ukraine (Februto present aka, “Putin’s War”) as connected but distinct conflicts two parts of a larger whole. That said, I think it is reasonably clear that the current conflict is, at minimum a marked change in scale from that ongoing conflict, featuring the open rather than convert involvement of the main of the Russian armed forces as well as a massive expansion of war aims to include the capture of Kyiv. The current War in Ukraine is, after all, a continuation of what I’ve seen termed the War in the Donbas, which began in April of 2014. Nevertheless I think this makes a useful moment to look back and take stock of the state of the conflict at present but also on the things I have written and the degree to which they have turned out to be accurate.Īlso let’s get an essential caveat out of the way early: the title of this post is in a way a bit of a misnomer. I will not call it an anniversary, because I don’t think anyone is celebrating. Today marks the end of the first year of Putin’s War in Ukraine. ![]()
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